U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Georgia's 13th District
Jasmine Clark win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Clark by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
David Albert Scott
Raised $522K · $16K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jasmine Clark
Raised $1.6M · $229K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Fayth Park
Raised $15K · $1K cash on hand · through Jul 8, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Jasmine Clark. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $908K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 8Fayth Park had raised $15KFEC filing
- Jun 30Jasmine Clark had raised $1.6MFEC filing
- Jun 30David Albert Scott had raised $522KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›