U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Hawaii's 1st District
Jarrett Keohokalole win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Keohokalole by 26
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Edward Case
Raised $1.1M · $600K cash on hand · through Jul 19, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jarrett Keohokalole
Raised $1.1M · $22K cash on hand · through Sep 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Adriel C Lam
Raised $0 · $0 cash on hand · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Other filers in this race raised $174K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 30Jarrett Keohokalole had raised $1.1MFEC filing
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 19Edward Case had raised $1.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.0 and D+38.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›