U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Hawaii's 2nd District
Jill Naomi Tokuda win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Tokuda by 27
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jill Naomi Tokuda
Raised $821K · $570K cash on hand · through Jul 19, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Brenton Awa
Raised $123K · $16K cash on hand · through Jul 19, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.8 points to Jill Naomi Tokuda. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 19Brenton Awa had raised $123KFEC filing
- Jul 19Jill Naomi Tokuda had raised $821KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.8 and D+39.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›