U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Illinois's 2nd District
Donna Miller win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Miller by 25.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Donna Miller
Raised $2.5M · $41K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Calvin Coleman
Raised $8K · $0 cash on hand · through Sep 23, 2025 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Donna Miller. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.3M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Donna Miller had raised $2.5MFEC filing
- Sep 23Calvin Coleman had raised $8KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+13.5 and D+37.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›