U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Illinois's 3rd District
Delia Ramirez win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Ramirez by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Delia Ramirez
Raised $1.5M · $946K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Angel Oakley
Raised $8K · $4K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Delia Ramirez. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Angel Oakley had raised $8KFEC filing
- Jun 30Delia Ramirez had raised $1.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›