U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Illinois's 7th District
Jason Friedman win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Friedman by 25.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jason Friedman
Raised $2.5M · $386K cash on hand · through Feb 25, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Chad Koppie
Raised $55K · $42.2 cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Jason Friedman. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $928K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Chad Koppie had raised $55KFEC filing
- Feb 25Jason Friedman had raised $2.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+13.5 and D+37.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›