U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Illinois's 8th District
Neil Khot win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Khot by 24.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Neil Khot
Raised $3.1M · $2K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jennifer Davis
Raised $1.5M · $730K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.3 points to Neil Khot. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $2.2M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Jennifer Davis had raised $1.5MFEC filing
- Jun 30Neil Khot had raised $3.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+12.5 and D+37.0.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›