U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Illinois's 9th District
Katherine M. Abughazaleh win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Abughazaleh by 25.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Katherine M. Abughazaleh
Raised $4.1M · $17K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Dongbo Su
Raised $24K · $0 cash on hand · through Sep 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Katherine M. Abughazaleh. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $3.0M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 30Dongbo Su had raised $24KFEC filing
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Katherine M. Abughazaleh had raised $4.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+13.5 and D+37.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›