U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Illinois's 14th District
Lauren Underwood win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Underwood by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Lauren Underwood
Raised $2.4M · $1.1M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
James Thomas Marter
Raised $141K · $32K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.2 points to Lauren Underwood. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $69K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30James Thomas Marter had raised $141KFEC filing
- Jun 30Lauren Underwood had raised $2.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.1 and D+39.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›