U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Illinois's 15th District
Mary Miller win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Miller by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Mary Miller
Raised $1.3M · $810K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jennifer Ann Todd
Raised $113K · $34K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.1 points to Mary Miller. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $130K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Jennifer Ann Todd had raised $113KFEC filing
- Jun 30Mary Miller had raised $1.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.9 and R+6.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›