U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Illinois's 16th District
Darin McKay Lahood win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Lahood by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Darin McKay Lahood
Raised $3.7M · $6.7M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Paul Nolley
Raised $416K · $230K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.9 points to Darin McKay Lahood. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $19K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Paul Nolley had raised $416KFEC filing
- Jun 30Darin McKay Lahood had raised $3.7MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.9 and R+6.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›