U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Indiana's 4th District
James R Baird win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Baird by 19
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
James R Baird
Raised $358K · $92K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Drew Cox
Raised $20K · $7K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.2 points to James R Baird. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $214K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Drew Cox had raised $20KFEC filing
- Jun 30James R Baird had raised $358KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.3 and R+6.8.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›