U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Indiana's 8th District
Mark Messmer win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Messmer by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Mark Messmer
Raised $1.2M · $714K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Mary Theresa Allen
Raised $295K · $179K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.6 points to Mark Messmer. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Mary Theresa Allen had raised $295KFEC filing
- Jun 30Mark Messmer had raised $1.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.6 and R+6.2.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›