U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Indiana's 9th District
Erin Houchin win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Houchin by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Erin Houchin
Raised $1.9M · $1.2M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Timothy Peck
Raised $172K · $17K cash on hand · through Apr 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.0 points to Erin Houchin. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $128K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Erin Houchin had raised $1.9MFEC filing
- Apr 15Timothy Peck had raised $172KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.8 and R+6.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›