U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Iowa's 1st District
Christina Bohannan win chance
62%
Typical margin: Bohannan by 2
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Mariannette Jane Miller-Meeks
Raised $7.2M · $4.7M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Christina Bohannan
Raised $7.1M · $5.4M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Other filers in this race raised $946K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Jun 30Christina Bohannan had raised $7.1MFEC filing
- Jun 30Mariannette Jane Miller-Meeks had raised $7.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+10.0 and D+14.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›