U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Iowa's 2nd District
Lindsay James win chance
54%
Typical margin: James by 0.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Joe Mitchell
Raised $1.9M · $896K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Lindsay James
Raised $1.6M · $756K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Joe Mitchell. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $835K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Lindsay James had raised $1.6MFEC filing
- Jun 30Joe Mitchell had raised $1.9MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+11.5 and D+12.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›