U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Iowa's 3rd District
Sarah Trone Garriott win chance
62%
Typical margin: Garriott by 2.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Zach Nunn
Raised $4.9M · $3.6M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Sarah Trone Garriott
Raised $5.3M · $3.9M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Other filers in this race raised $608K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Jun 30Sarah Trone Garriott had raised $5.3MFEC filing
- Jun 30Zach Nunn had raised $4.9MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+9.9 and D+14.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›