U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Iowa's 4th District
Chris McGowan win chance
99%
Typical margin: McGowan by 16.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Chris McGowan
Raised $680K · $329K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Dave Dawson
Raised $136K · $50K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.7 points to Chris McGowan. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $469K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Dave Dawson had raised $136KFEC filing
- Jun 30Chris McGowan had raised $680KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+28.9 and R+4.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›