U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Kansas's 2nd District
Derek Schmidt win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Schmidt by 18
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Derek Schmidt
Raised $1.5M · $939K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Don Coover
Raised $759K · $244K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.3 points to Derek Schmidt. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $231 in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 15Don Coover had raised $759KFEC filing
- Jul 15Derek Schmidt had raised $1.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.3 and R+5.8.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›