U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Kansas's 4th District
Ron Estes win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Estes by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Ron Estes
Raised $1.9M · $1.8M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Katy Tyndell
Raised $234K · $73K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.9 points to Ron Estes. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $98K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 15Katy Tyndell had raised $234KFEC filing
- Jul 15Ron Estes had raised $1.9MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.8 and R+6.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›