U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Kentucky's 3rd District
Morgan McGarvey win chance
>99%
Typical margin: McGarvey by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Morgan McGarvey
Raised $1.6M · $1.8M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Maria Teresa Rodriguez
Raised $38K · $16K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Morgan McGarvey. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $3K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Maria Teresa Rodriguez had raised $38KFEC filing
- Jun 30Morgan McGarvey had raised $1.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›