U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Kentucky's 4th District
Ed Gallrein win chance
99%
Typical margin: Gallrein by 17.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Ed Gallrein
Raised $3.6M · $179K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Melissa Claire Strange
Raised $94K · $11K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Ed Gallrein. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $123K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Melissa Claire Strange had raised $94KFEC filing
- Jun 30Ed Gallrein had raised $3.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.5 and R+5.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›