U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Kentucky's 5th District
Harold Dallas Rogers win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Rogers by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Harold Dallas Rogers
Raised $850K · $875K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Ned Pillersdorf
Raised $182K · $91K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.7 points to Harold Dallas Rogers. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $140K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Ned Pillersdorf had raised $182KFEC filing
- Jun 30Harold Dallas Rogers had raised $850KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.8 and R+6.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›