U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Kentucky's 6th District
Adam Perez Arquette win chance
60%
Typical margin: Arquette by 2
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Adam Perez Arquette
Raised $5.0M · $0 cash on hand · through May 4, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Zach Dembo
Raised $1.5M · $491K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.5 points to Adam Perez Arquette. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $2.2M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Zach Dembo had raised $1.5MFEC filing
- May 4Adam Perez Arquette had raised $5.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+14.0 and D+10.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›