U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Louisiana's 1st District
Steve Scalise win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Scalise by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Steve Scalise
Raised $10.6M · $3.9M cash on hand · through Jul 18, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Lauren Jewett
Raised $143K · $12K cash on hand · through Jul 18, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Steve Scalise. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 18Lauren Jewett had raised $143KFEC filing
- Jul 18Steve Scalise had raised $10.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›