U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Louisiana's 3rd District
Clay Higgins win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Higgins by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Clay Higgins
Raised $823K · $595K cash on hand · through Jul 18, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
John David Day
Raised $23K · $7K cash on hand · through Jul 18, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Clay Higgins. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 18John David Day had raised $23KFEC filing
- Jul 18Clay Higgins had raised $823KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›