U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Louisiana's 4th District
James Michael Johnson win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Johnson by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
James Michael Johnson
Raised $21.0M · $9.6M cash on hand · through Jul 18, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Matthew Gromlich
Raised $269K · $10K cash on hand · through Jul 18, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to James Michael Johnson. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $289K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 18Matthew Gromlich had raised $269KFEC filing
- Jul 18James Michael Johnson had raised $21.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›