U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Louisiana's 5th District
Michael Charles Echols win chance
99%
Typical margin: Echols by 17.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Michael Charles Echols
Raised $3.0M · $1.1M cash on hand · through Jul 18, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Dan McKay
Raised $90K · $-19055.55 cash on hand · through Jul 18, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Michael Charles Echols. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $589K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 18Dan McKay had raised $90KFEC filing
- Jul 18Michael Charles Echols had raised $3.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.5 and R+5.0.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›