U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Maine's 1st District
Chellie M Pingree win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Pingree by 27
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Chellie M Pingree
Raised $430K · $423K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Ronald Charles Russell
Raised $76K · $20K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.8 points to Chellie M Pingree. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $34K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Ronald Charles Russell had raised $76KFEC filing
- Jun 30Chellie M Pingree had raised $430KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.7 and D+39.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›