U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Maine's 2nd District
Paul Lepage win chance
57%
Typical margin: Lepage by 1.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Paul Lepage
Raised $2.6M · $1.7M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Matt Dunlap
Raised $1.2M · $229K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.3 points to Paul Lepage. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $665K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Matt Dunlap had raised $1.2MFEC filing
- Jun 30Paul Lepage had raised $2.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+13.7 and D+10.8.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›