U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Maryland's 3rd District
Sarah Kelly Elfreth win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Elfreth by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Sarah Kelly Elfreth
Raised $1.1M · $336K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Bernard Flowers
Raised $13K · $2K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Sarah Kelly Elfreth. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Bernard Flowers had raised $13KFEC filing
- Jun 30Sarah Kelly Elfreth had raised $1.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›