U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Maryland's 6th District
David Trone win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Trone by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
April McClain Delaney
Raised $12.3M · $308K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
David Trone
Raised $26.2M · $1.5M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Robin Ficker
Raised $404K · $400.86 cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to David Trone. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $204K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Robin Ficker had raised $404KFEC filing
- Jun 30David Trone had raised $26.2MFEC filing
- Jun 30April McClain Delaney had raised $12.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›