U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Massachusetts's 1st District
Richard E Neal win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Neal by 26
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Richard E Neal
Raised $2.5M · $3.3M cash on hand · through Aug 12, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Nadia D Milleron
Raised $550K · $-656404.45 cash on hand · through Sep 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Other filers in this race raised $392K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 30Nadia D Milleron had raised $550KFEC filing
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Aug 12Richard E Neal had raised $2.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.0 and D+38.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›