U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Massachusetts's 3rd District
Lori Trahan win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Trahan by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Lori Trahan
Raised $1.6M · $1.8M cash on hand · through Aug 12, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Gary J. Grossi
Raised $7K · $6K cash on hand · through Aug 12, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Lori Trahan. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Aug 12Gary J. Grossi had raised $7KFEC filing
- Aug 12Lori Trahan had raised $1.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›