U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Massachusetts's 4th District
Jake Auchincloss win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Auchincloss by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jake Auchincloss
Raised $3.6M · $7.3M cash on hand · through Aug 12, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Thomas Stalcup
Raised $26K · $1K cash on hand · through Aug 12, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Jake Auchincloss. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $107K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Aug 12Thomas Stalcup had raised $26KFEC filing
- Aug 12Jake Auchincloss had raised $3.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›