U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Massachusetts's 5th District
Katherine Clark win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Clark by 26
Democrat
Who's running
Katherine ClarkDemocrat · Incumbent
The numbers behind it
Cook Political ReportAs of Sep 23, 2026Solid D
Money raisedFEC, through Aug 12, 2026Clark $4.5M
Campaign money
Katherine Clark
Raised $4.5M · $2.0M cash on hand · through Aug 12, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Other filers in this race raised $163K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Aug 12Katherine Clark had raised $4.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.0 and D+38.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›