U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Massachusetts's 8th District
Patrick Thomas Roath win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Roath by 26
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Stephen Lynch
Raised $910K · $642K cash on hand · through Aug 12, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Patrick Thomas Roath
Raised $1.3M · $220K cash on hand · through Aug 12, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Walter Grochowski
Raised $0 · $0 cash on hand · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Other filers in this race raised $1K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Aug 12Patrick Thomas Roath had raised $1.3MFEC filing
- Aug 12Stephen Lynch had raised $910KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.0 and D+38.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›