U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Massachusetts's 9th District
William R Keating win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Keating by 26.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
William R Keating
Raised $422K · $496K cash on hand · through Aug 12, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Robert Tyler Macallister
Raised $175K · $35K cash on hand · through Aug 12, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.4 points to William R Keating. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $41K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Aug 12Robert Tyler Macallister had raised $175KFEC filing
- Aug 12William R Keating had raised $422KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.4 and D+38.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›