U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Michigan's 1st District
John Bergman win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Bergman by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
John Bergman
Raised $1.9M · $660K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Callie Barr
Raised $824K · $531K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.4 points to John Bergman. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $2.3M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 15Callie Barr had raised $824KFEC filing
- Jul 15John Bergman had raised $1.9MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.6 and R+6.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›