U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Michigan's 3rd District
Hillary Scholten win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Scholten by 27
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Hillary Scholten
Raised $2.3M · $1.4M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Terri Deboer
Raised $552K · $361K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.6 points to Hillary Scholten. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $116K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 15Terri Deboer had raised $552KFEC filing
- Jul 15Hillary Scholten had raised $2.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.5 and D+39.0.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›