U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Michigan's 5th District
Timothy L Walberg win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Walberg by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Timothy L Walberg
Raised $1.7M · $994K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Christian A Vukasovich
Raised $56K · $13K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Timothy L Walberg. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 15Christian A Vukasovich had raised $56KFEC filing
- Jul 15Timothy L Walberg had raised $1.7MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›