U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Michigan's 8th District
Kristen McDonald Rivet win chance
95%
Typical margin: Rivet by 12.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Kristen McDonald Rivet
Raised $5.6M · $4.3M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Amir Hassan
Raised $727K · $105K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.9 points to Kristen McDonald Rivet. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $243K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely DCook Political Report
- Jul 15Amir Hassan had raised $727KFEC filing
- Jul 15Kristen McDonald Rivet had raised $5.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+0.3 and D+24.7.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›