U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Michigan's 10th District
Eric Chung win chance
72%
Typical margin: Chung by 4.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Eric Chung
Raised $1.9M · $621K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Michael Bouchard
Raised $1.6M · $1.1M cash on hand · through Aug 19, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Eric Chung. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $2.6M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Aug 19Michael Bouchard had raised $1.6MFEC filing
- Jul 15Eric Chung had raised $1.9MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+8.0 and D+16.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›