U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Michigan's 11th District
Jeremy Moss win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Moss by 25.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jeremy Moss
Raised $1.5M · $353K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Anil Kumar
Raised $713K · $408K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Ethan D Baker
Raised $142K · $121K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.0 points to Jeremy Moss. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.0M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 15Ethan D Baker had raised $142KFEC filing
- Jul 15Jeremy Moss had raised $1.5MFEC filing
- Jun 30Anil Kumar had raised $713KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+13.2 and D+37.6.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›