U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Michigan's 12th District
Rashida Tlaib win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Tlaib by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Rashida Tlaib
Raised $2.8M · $3.4M cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
James D Hooper
Raised $775 · $8K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Rashida Tlaib. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $112K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 15James D Hooper had raised $775FEC filing
- Jul 15Rashida Tlaib had raised $2.8MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›