U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Michigan's 13th District
Donavan McKinney win chance
>99%
Typical margin: McKinney by 25.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Donavan McKinney
Raised $1.4M · $143K cash on hand · through Jul 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Martell De'Angelo Bivings
Raised $0.01 · $15K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Donavan McKinney. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $430K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 15Donavan McKinney had raised $1.4MFEC filing
- Jun 30Martell De'Angelo Bivings had raised $0.01FEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+13.5 and D+37.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›