U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Minnesota's 2nd District
Matthew David Klein win chance
91%
Typical margin: Klein by 10
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Matthew David Klein
Raised $1.2M · $289K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Eric Pratt
Raised $511K · $254K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.4 points to Matthew David Klein. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.7M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely DCook Political Report
- Jul 22Eric Pratt had raised $511KFEC filing
- Jul 22Matthew David Klein had raised $1.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+2.1 and D+22.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›