U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Minnesota's 3rd District
Kelly Louise Morrison win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Morrison by 27
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Kelly Louise Morrison
Raised $1.4M · $414K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Quentin Wittrock
Raised $265K · $214K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.7 points to Kelly Louise Morrison. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 22Quentin Wittrock had raised $265KFEC filing
- Jul 22Kelly Louise Morrison had raised $1.4MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.7 and D+39.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›