U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Minnesota's 4th District
Betty McCollum win chance
>99%
Typical margin: McCollum by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Betty McCollum
Raised $1.3M · $499K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Paul Xiong
Raised $61K · $21K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.3 points to Betty McCollum. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $28K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 22Paul Xiong had raised $61KFEC filing
- Jul 22Betty McCollum had raised $1.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.1 and D+39.6.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›