U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Minnesota's 5th District
Ilhan Omar win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Omar by 26.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Ilhan Omar
Raised $5.8M · $1.3M cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Dalia Al-Aqidi
Raised $1.1M · $51K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.7 points to Ilhan Omar. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $793K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 22Dalia Al-Aqidi had raised $1.1MFEC filing
- Jul 22Ilhan Omar had raised $5.8MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.5 and D+38.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›